The Secret Wisdom of the Two-Man Pitching Rotation

It was suggested to me by a Pirates fan on an internet message board that the team would be better off if Gerrit Cole started every other game for the Pirates.  He suggests that a pitcher who started so many games could not fail.  In fact, there is no precedent for such a move.  No pitcher has ever started eighty games, and few have started more than seventy.

Can a pitcher who starts at least seventy games fail?  I suppose that depends upon your definition of failure.  Bobby Matthews started 70 games for the New York Mutuals of the National Association in 1875, and finished 69 of them. He had an ERA+ of 90.  ERA+ works like IQ.  100 is average.  90 is close to a standard deviation below average.  That's okay for an innings-eating fifth starter, but while pitching close to half of a team's innings is an impressive feat, if half of a team's innings are pitched that poorly, it will make it hard to win games.

Every other pitcher who started 70 games or more has been a rousing success, by any definition.  Pud Galvin started 75 games for the Buffalo Bisons in 1883, finishing 72, and managed an ERA+ of 117, well above average, while leading the league in innings pitched.  He followed that effort with and even more-impressive 1884 campaign of 72 starts, 71 complete games, and a 155 ERA+ with the Bisons.  Galvin shares the record for games started with one Will White, who pitched 75 complete games for the Cincinnati Reds in 1879.  He predictably led the league in innings, and posted an ERA+ of 120.

Others to start 70+ games in a season are as follows:
Jim McCormick (1880 Cleveland Blues):  74 starts, 72 complete games, 126 ERA+
Charles "Old Hoss" Radbourn (1884 Providence Grays) 73 starts, 73 complete games, 205 ERA+
Guy Hecker (1884 Louisville Blues):  73 starts, 72 complete games, 170 ERA+
John Clarkson (1889 Boston Beaneaters):  72 starts, 68 complete games, league-leading 150 ERA+
John Clarkson (1885 Chicago White Stockings): 70 starts, 68 complete games, 163 ERA+
Bill Hutchinson (1892 Chicago Colts) 70 starts, 67 complete games, 113 ERA+


Galvin and Clarkson, the only two men ever to accrue two seasons with 70-plus starts, are Hall of Famers, as is the Old Hoss.  Perhaps there is something to this two-man rotation thing.


(Credit:  BaseballReference.com pitching statistics)