It's an old baseball commonplace that pitching is ahead of hitting in April, and that hitting improves as the weather warms up. But is it actually true?
If this year is any indication, that's not true. Major League Baseball is currently hitting .249, slugging .390, and getting on base at a .314 clip. This adds up to an on-base plus slugging average (OPS) of .704, which serves as a quick and dirty approximation of total offensive production. So far this season, pitchers have an average ERA of 3.89.
In fact, hitting is already slightly ahead of where it was last year, and pitching is behind. Last year's MLB averages were .251 for batting, .314 for on-base, and .386 for slugging, adding up to an OPS of .700, four points less than the early 2015 season. Last year's average ERA was only 3.74!
Sayings like "pitching is ahead of hitting" are used to explain individual performances at least as often, and probably more often, than team performance. If the fan or writer likes a player who isn't hitting well, it's because pitching is ahead of hitting. If a fan or writer wants to dismiss a player who is hitting well, it's because "the book isn't out on him yet," meaning that teams haven't had enough time to scout him and find his weaknesses. It's my belief that all of these little sayings exist to provide convenient explanations for events with much simpler explanations: scouting is less science than art, and small samples of statistics have very little value when evaluating a player.
(All statistics from ESPN.com)
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